[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 27 09:38:03 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A few B-class and
one C1.2/2035 flares were observed. The C-flare came from
a region that is about to pass the eastern limb and appear
on the disk soon. A full halo CME was also observed today,
but it could not be related to any other event. The
appearance of this CME seems to be a back side event with
no earthward component. The solar wind speed showed a
gradual decrease from 650 to 470 km/s during the UT day
today and the coronal hole effect seems to be weakening.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained slightly negative for most part of
the UT day today. The remaining effect of the coronal hole
and that of the CME observed on 25 June may keep the solar
wind stream slightly strengthened on 27 and 28 June. The
solar activity is expected to remain very low to low during
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 2212 3211
Learmonth 6 2212 3111
Culgoora 5 2212 2111
Canberra 5 1212 2210
Hobart 6 1212 3211
Casey(Ant) 11 3322 3312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3312 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 9 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The coronal hole effect seems to have started to
weaken. However, the remaining effect of this coronal hole
and that of a CME observed on 25 June may keep the geomagnetic
activity slightly enhanced during the next two days,
especially if Bz stays southwards for sustained periods of
time. Quiet conditions are expected on the third day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are may show some degradations on
high latitude locations during the next two days due to
the possibility of some enhancements in the geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 28 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jun 28 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jun 30 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 595 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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