[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jun             17 Jun             18 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
15/2150UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3443 3211
      Learmonth           12   3333 3221
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra            13   3343 3211
      Hobart              15   3344 3211
      Casey(Ant)          17   4532 3212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   2222 2243     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jun    22    active 
17 Jun    26    active 
18 Jun    17    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 15 June and 
is current for interval 15-17 June. Disturbed geomagnetic conditions 
expected during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Jun      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
18 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Jun    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jun    40    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
17 Jun    15    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
18 Jun    15    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    82800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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