[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 15 09:36:35 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: A weak coronal mass ejection pass by the Earth at 1752UT.
Solar wind speed jumped from 450 to 525km/sec. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field breifly fluctuated
southward post shock arrival. Solar region 775 now located at
N10W59 was reported by LASCO to be the origin of a slow full
halo coronal mass ejection 09-15UT on 14 June. Review of LASCO
imagery showed the CME was biased mostly westward. This mass
ejection is expected to reach the Earth on 16 June. Far westward
location and slow event speed possibly detract from geoeffectiveness
of this event. The CME was associated with only a C4 xray event.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
14/1700UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 2221 1043
Learmonth 6 1111 1043
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 4 1121 0033
Hobart 5 2121 0033
Casey(Ant) 15 3332 1152
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 33 5644 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 18 Active
16 Jun 25 Active to minor storm
17 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Active to minor storm conditions conditions expected
late 15-16 Jun, due to recent coronal mass ejection activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Fair-Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF comms quality expected 16-17
June mid-high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 15 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 15 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected initially for today. Conditions
may detriorate local night tonight southern Aus/NZ region only.
Mild depressions of 15% possible after local dawn on 16 and 17
June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 58700 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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