[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 05
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 14 09:55:14 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mildly southward over the UT day. No significant flare
activity has been observed in past 24 hours. A weak coronal mass
ejection may be enroute to the Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 23 4343 5331
Learmonth 29 5443 5431
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 24 4344 5331
Hobart 23 3344 5330
Casey(Ant) 13 3332 3331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 35 2244 4556
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
15 Jun 16 active
16 Jun 17 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 12 June and
is current for interval 12-14 June. Geomagnetic field activiyt
declining after recent coronal mass ejection induced activity.
Active conditions may be experienced on 15 Jun, due to a recent
coronal mass ejection.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal-Fair Fair Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
16 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 20 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
15 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 13 June
and is current for interval 13-14 June. Mild depressions of 15%
possible after local dawn. Generally improved HF conditions expected
today following depressed MUFS on 13 Jun for Southern AUS/NZ
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 453 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 41400 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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