[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 13 09:52:48 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
region 775 producing two C-class events, a C3.5 class event at
0230UT and a C3.0 at 1507UT. Solar wind speed underwent a step
increase of 40km/s at 0653UT, along with an increase in solar
wind density and temp. with the arrival of the shock front
from the recent partial halo CME. The solar wind velocity rose
to be 500km/s at 1600UT and has remained at this level at the
time of this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz), fluctuated between +/-10nT from 0910UT to
1600UT which resulted in Active geomagnetic conditions. From
1600UT onwards, Bz remained southward at approx. -14nT which
has resulted in minor geomagnetic storm conditions. Further C-class
events are expected for the next few days, with no sizable change
in sunspot size or magnetic complexity of any of the regions
currently on disk.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0650UT
on 12 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 28 1244 4465
Learmonth 28 1254 3555
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 19 0133 4455
Hobart 17 0133 4355
Casey(Ant) 31 1234 3375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2111 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 30 Active to Minor storm
14 Jun 20 active
15 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 12 June and
is current for interval 12-14 June. Active to Minor Storm conditions
observed over the last 24 hours, with the arrival of the shock
front from the recent CME. Active to Minor Storm conditions expected
for 13Jun, with Unsetteld to Active levels for 14Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
14 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed over low-mid latitudes over
the last 24 hours. Degraded conditions expected for mid-high
latitudes expected for the next 24 hours due to increased geomagnetic
conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
14 Jun 30 near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good HF conditons observed for the last 24 hours. Southern
Aus/NZ region MUFs expected to be mildly depressed over the next
24 hours due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 27500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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