[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 12 09:37:21 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed fell to a minimum of 290km/s between 1300UT 
and 1800UT, after which it rose to be 310km/s at the time of this 
report. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz), fluctuated between +/-5nT from 0000UT to 1500UT after 
which it underwent short southward swings between neutral and -8nT. 
C-class events are expected for the next few days, with no sizable 
change in sunspot size or magnetic complexity of any of the regions 
currently on disk. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1112 0222
      Learmonth            4   1212 0222
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             2   1001 0211
      Hobart               2   1011 0211
      Casey(Ant)           5   2122 1122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Jun     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions possible for the next 
2 days due to the chance of a faint shock arrival from the
partial halo CME on 08June. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes.
Similar conditions expected for the next 2 days with the
possiblilty of degraded HF conditions for high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jun    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun    35    near predicted monthly values 
13 Jun    30    near predicted monthly values 
14 Jun    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed for the last 24 hours.
Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs may experience some isolated
depressed periods over the next 2 days, but generally good
HF conditions are expected over all regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    61400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list