[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 12 09:37:21 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed fell to a minimum of 290km/s between 1300UT
and 1800UT, after which it rose to be 310km/s at the time of this
report. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz), fluctuated between +/-5nT from 0000UT to 1500UT after
which it underwent short southward swings between neutral and -8nT.
C-class events are expected for the next few days, with no sizable
change in sunspot size or magnetic complexity of any of the regions
currently on disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 1112 0222
Learmonth 4 1212 0222
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 2 1001 0211
Hobart 2 1011 0211
Casey(Ant) 5 2122 1122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 2111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions possible for the next
2 days due to the chance of a faint shock arrival from the
partial halo CME on 08June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes.
Similar conditions expected for the next 2 days with the
possiblilty of degraded HF conditions for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 35 near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 30 near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good HF conditions observed for the last 24 hours.
Southern Aus/NZ region MUFs may experience some isolated
depressed periods over the next 2 days, but generally good
HF conditions are expected over all regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 342 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 61400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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