[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jun             12 Jun             13 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with only 
a C2.0 class event from region 772 at 0304UT. Solar wind speed 
gradually decreased from 380km/s to be 320km/s at the time of 
this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz), fluctuated between +/-3nT over the entire 
UT day. Further C-class events are expected for the next few 
days, with no sizable change in sunspot size or magnetic complexity 
of any of the regions currently on disk. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1101 1011
      Learmonth            1   1101 0010
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             0   0001 1001
      Hobart               1   0101 1000
      Casey(Ant)           4   2211 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1102 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions possible for the next 
3 days due to the chance of a faint shock arrival from the
partial halo CME on 08June. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes. Similar 
conditions expected for the next 24 hours with the possiblilty 
of degraded HF conditions for high latitudes on 12Jun-13Jun. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jun    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jun    35    near predicted monthly values 
12 Jun    30    near predicted monthly values 
13 Jun    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditons observed for the last 24 hours,
with similar conditions expected for 11Jun. Southern Aus/NZ
region MUFs may experience some isolated depressed periods
on 12Jun-13Jun, but generally good HF conditions are expected
over all regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    71300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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