[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jun             11 Jun             12 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1111 2211
      Learmonth            3   0101 2211
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             2   0000 2200
      Hobart               2   0000 2200
      Casey(Ant)           6   2221 2221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   2212 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jun    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jun    40    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
11 Jun    30    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
12 Jun    30    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jun
Speed: 444 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    92900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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