[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 17 09:22:37 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.0 2022UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: A shock was observed in the solar wind at 0807UT
on 16 June. Solar wind speed rose from pre-shock 450km/sec to
post shock 500-600km/sec. Shock was from recent coronal mass
ejection. The north-south component of the interplaterary magnetic
fluctuated southward by up to 20nT 08-10UT. Another CME from a previous
solar event may still be enroute to the Earth, and may arrive
on 17 June. The above M4 event was from solar region 775 which
is about to rotate off disk. A 10MeV proton event followed this
flare. A Type II radio sweep was reported with this event. A
shock from this event is probable late 18 June, the far westard locaton
may reduce geoeffectiveness. Solar region 779 showed some activity
in H-alpha imagery yesterday around 03UT, and is showing development
between its leader and trailer spots in white light imagery.
Chance for isolated flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 13 1234 3332
Learmonth 15 1234 3432
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 18 0235 3432
Hobart 16 0235 3332
Casey(Ant) 9 1223 32-2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 21 3553 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 26 active
18 Jun 25 Active to minor storm
19 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 15 June and
is current for interval 15-17 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 06 2005 2225UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Fair Fair Poor(PCA)
18 Jun Fair Fair Fair-Poor
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: High latitudes expected to experience increased absorption
today. Mild degradation in HF comms quality expected 17 June
mid latitudes, following geomagnetic activity. Conditions will
probably improve by late 17 June, then returning to degraded
18 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 20 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
18 Jun 20 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
19 Jun 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions of 15% possible after local dawn on
17 and 18 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 503 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 60700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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