[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 2 09:49:43 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 02 JUNE - 04 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0243UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jun: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jun 03 Jun 04 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours.
Region 772 produced a M1.4 class flare at 0240UT as well as numerous
C-class events over the UT day. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between -2nT
and 4nT. Solar wind speed has continued to fall, from 460km/s
at 0000UT to 390km/s at the time of this report. Region 772 has
the potential for further M-class events over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 2222 2211
Learmonth 7 3222 2211
Culgoora 7 2--- ----
Canberra 5 2-11 2211
Hobart 5 2211 2210
Casey(Ant) 7 2322 2211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 17 4433 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Jun 20 active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours, with similar conditions expected for the next 24 hours.
An expected increase in solar wind parameters with Unsettled
to Active conditions arising from coronal hole effects is due
on 03-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to improve today over the degraded
conditions observed at low-mid latitudes over the the last 24
hours. Mild recurrent geomagnetic activity may degrade high latitude
HF comms 03 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jun 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 25
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jun 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
03 Jun 35 near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Northern Aus region MUFs slightly depressed yesterday
as well as the mid latitudes. Mostly normal conditions expected
for all AUS/NZ regions with a slight chance of depressions of
no more than 10%, after local dawn this morning.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 May
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 35400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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