[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was steady at around 400km/sec. Solar 
region 772 (S18E36) has produced some minor optical flare activity 
this morning. Further minor flare activity possible. A coronal 
hole is visible at solar central meridian. The Earth is expected 
to enter the wind stream from this hole 03-04 June. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1112 2111
      Learmonth            3   1111 2112
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             2   1002 1111
      Hobart               2   1002 1111
      Casey(Ant)           5   2222 2111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   3312 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
04 Jun    20    active 
05 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected from coronal 
hole wind stream effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jun    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun    40    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Jun    15    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: Southern Aus/NZ region MUfs may become mildly depressed 
on 02 to 03 Jun due to coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    55500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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