[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 15 09:42:53 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0323UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 0652UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M9.1 0725UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
X1.3 1055UT probable all European
M1.3 1725UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 2258UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined over the past 24 hours from
600km/sec down to ~500km/sec. IMF Bz was southward, favouring
reconnection with the geomagnetic field, from 01-17UT. Solar
region 786 approaching the western limb produced several M and
C class events (above) including an M9.1 flare at 0725. An X1.2
flare from this region occurred at 1055 and the region is also
associated with a solar prominence. CMEs were associated with
the two larger flares and may glance the Earths magnetic field
on the 15/16th although they were very westward limb directed
so the probability may not be high.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 1222 2111
Learmonth 4 1222 2100
Culgoora 5 1222 2111
Canberra 6 1223 2100
Hobart 8 1233 3110
Casey(Ant) 9 2332 3112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 147 (Severe storm)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30 3455 5434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jul 20 active
16 Jul 20 active
17 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Active periods expected over the next couple of days
due to the stream of CMEs which have a probability of striking
glancing blows on the geomagnetic field.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 14 07 2005 1420UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Poor(PCA)
16 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: A polar cap absorption (PCA) events occurred at
0350-0450UT,0515-0555UT and 1420UT with several proton events.
HF conditions at high latitudes were not as disturbed over the
past 24 hours as the previous day however. Low latitudes also
appeared less disturbed than the previous day. HF conditions
may possibly be degraded at mid to high latitudes over next few
days due to the possibility of geomagnetic disturbances from
flare related CMEs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jul 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jul 27 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
16 Jul 27 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
17 Jul 27 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were close to predicted monthly values in the last
24 hrs but may decline slightly in the next couple of days due
to a disturbed ionosphere from possible CME/geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jul
Speed: 581 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 168000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list