[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 14 09:27:27 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0317UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M3.2 1219UT possible lower European
M5.0 1458UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 1909UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.2 2154UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind sped rose over the past 12 hours to 600km/sec.
IMF Bz was southward, favouring reconnection with the geomagnetic
field, from 07-13UT. Solar region 786 produced five M and several
C class events. SEC reported a westward directed CME associated
with the M5 flare occurring near 1458UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Jul : A K
Australian Region 17 2334 4332
Learmonth 17 2434 4323
Culgoora 15 2333 4332
Canberra 16 1334 4332
Hobart 21 1344 5332
Casey(Ant) 16 2423 4--2
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 12 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 48 5656 6532
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jul 18 active
15 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jul 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Active periods expected next few days. Chance for isolated
minor storm periods due to recent coronal mass ejection activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal-fair Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Disturbed HF conditions observed at high latitudes over
past 24 hours. Enhanced critical frequencies and spread F conditions
noted at low latitudes. HF conditions expected to remain mildly
degraded at mid to high latitudes over next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jul 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jul 30 about 5% below predicted monthly values
15 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values
16 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly below predicted monthly values in
the last 24 hrs and are expected to remain as such in the Australian/NZ
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 141000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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