[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0317UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.2    1219UT  possible   lower  European
  M5.0    1458UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.2    1909UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.2    2154UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jul             15 Jul             16 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind sped rose over the past 12 hours to 600km/sec. 
IMF Bz was southward, favouring reconnection with the geomagnetic 
field, from 07-13UT. Solar region 786 produced five M and several 
C class events. SEC reported a westward directed CME associated 
with the M5 flare occurring near 1458UT. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 13 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   2334 4332
      Learmonth           17   2434 4323
      Culgoora            15   2333 4332
      Canberra            16   1334 4332
      Hobart              21   1344 5332
      Casey(Ant)          16   2423 4--2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jul : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              54   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             48   5656 6532     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jul    18    active 
15 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Jul     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Active periods expected next few days. Chance for isolated 
minor storm periods due to recent coronal mass ejection activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Disturbed HF conditions observed at high latitudes over 
past 24 hours. Enhanced critical frequencies and spread F conditions 
noted at low latitudes. HF conditions expected to remain mildly 
degraded at mid to high latitudes over next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jul    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jul    30    about 5% below predicted monthly values 
15 Jul    30    near predicted monthly values 
16 Jul    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly below predicted monthly values in 
the last 24 hrs and are expected to remain as such in the Australian/NZ 
region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jul
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   141000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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