[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 13 09:41:12 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    1309UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.1    1600UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.5    1625UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.1    2246UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind sped rose over the past 24 hours from 400 
to 500km/sec. The north south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was southward 00-05UT, and 09-15UT. The cause 
of the increase in wind speed is unclear, possibly a combination 
of recurrent and indistinct weak mass ejection effects. Solar 
region 786 located at N11W64 produced the above M1 events. The 
M1 event at 16UT was reported by SEC to be assciated with a Type 
IV radio sweep. Subsequent viewing of SOHO/LASCO imagery confirmed 
a coronal mass ejection had ocurred. However, the coronal mass 
ejection appears predominately westward directed, with limited 
expansion. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
12/0425UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 12 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   3334 5321
      Learmonth           18   3334 5210
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra            20   3334 5320
      Hobart              22   3344 5321
      Casey(Ant)          17   3333 5222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             50                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             23   4353 4343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul    18    Unsettled to active 
14 Jul    18    Unsettled to active 
15 Jul    10    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 10 July and 
is current for interval 11-13 July. Active periods expected next 
few days. Chance for isolated minor storm periods during local 
night hours due to recent weak mass ejection activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditins observed at high latitudes over 
past 24 hours. HF conditions expected to remain mildly degraded 
at mid to high latitudes over next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jul    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed at some Antarctic 
      sites, second half of UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values 
14 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values 
15 Jul    35    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions may have been experienced 
overnight. MUFs are near predicted monthly values after local 
dawn this morning and are expected to remain as such in the Australian/NZ 
region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 416 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    27000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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