[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 05

Sat Jul 16 09:56:17 EST 2005

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul:  87/30

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              80/20

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1111
      Learmonth            3   1111 1121
      Culgoora             3   1111 1121
      Canberra             2   0111 1011
      Hobart               3   1111 1111
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 1212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
/home/mag/tvl/index/pc3/daily/pc3.05
/home/mag/lem/index/pc3/daily/pc3.05
/home/mag/clg/index/pc3/daily/pc3.05
/home/mag/cbr/index/pc3/daily/pc3.05
/home/mag/hbt/index/pc3/daily/pc3.05
/home/mag/tvl/index/pc3/daily/pc3.05
/home/mag/lem/index/pc3/daily/pc3.05
/home/mag/clg/index/pc3/daily/pc3.05
/home/mag/cbr/index/pc3/daily/pc3.05
/home/mag/hbt/index/pc3/daily/pc3.05

      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra           142   (Severe storm)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   2433 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul    27    active 
17 Jul    21    active 
18 Jul    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 14 07 2005 1420UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal-Fair    Fair           Poor(PCA)
17 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Jul    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul    25    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jul    15    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
18 Jul    15    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 503 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    98800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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