[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 10 09:53:48 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: Low to moderate
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Region 786 produced a C2.1 level flare at 1026UT, and
a short-duration M2.9 level flare at 2200UT. The M-class flare
was correlated with two Type II radio sweeps in quick succession.
At the time of report issue, LASCO imagery is not available to
confirm any CME. Region 786 maintains a moderate magnetic complexity
and has a possibility of further M-classs activity. Solar wind
parameters have been slightly elevated over the UT day, probably
under the influence of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 12 2223 4323
Learmonth 15 3233 -433
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 15 2223 5323
Hobart 15 2223 5323
Casey(Ant) 9 2322 3223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 20 active
11 Jul 20 active
12 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continued the upward trend observed
late yesterday to reach a steady value of around 350 km/s. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was moderately
southward at -5nT over most of the UT day, resulting in brief
periods of active to minor storm conditions. Observed solar wind
patterns are probably due to the anticipated coronal hole wind
stream. There is a possibility of solar wind shock arrivals today
due to the observed CME activity of Jul 07. There is a possibility
of a shock arrival on day two or three following the M-class
flare and Type II radio sweep observed on 09/2200UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
11 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes during
the last 24 hours. There is a possibility of disturbed intervals
over the next two days, mainly at mid to high latitudes, resulting
from observed solar activity on Jul 07 and Jul 09, and current
coronal-hole induced solar wind disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
11 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
12 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated periods of spread-F observed at low and high
latitudes, particularly local night. There is a possibility of
periods of degraded HF conditions over the next two days mainly
at mid to high latitudes due to observed solar activity on Jul
07 and Jul 09, and current coronal-hole induced solar wind disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 30400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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