[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 9 09:36:29 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low over the past 24 hours.
Region 783 produced a long duration C1.9 level flare at 0520.
There was a very weak Type II sweep reported from Learmonth Solar
Observatory at 0634UT. Region 786 maintains a moderate magnetic
complexity and has a possibility of further M-classs activity.
Solar wind parameters have so far not been influenced by the
small coronal hole now in geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 1211 1011
Learmonth 2 1111 1011
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 1 1210 0001
Hobart 2 1110 1011
Casey(Ant) 4 2211 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2121 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 25 active
10 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Anticipated CME-induced shock and coronal-hole solar
wind disturbances have so far not eventuated. Solar wind parameters
remain near nominal levels. The solar wind velocity commenced
an upward trend late in the UT day. At the time of report issue
there is insufficient data to indicate the onset of the coronal
hole wind stream. If disturbances do eventuate today, they will
probably be short-lived, with conditions declining to unsettled
on days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes during
the last 24 hours. There is a possibility of disturbed intervals
over the next two days, mainly at mid to high latitudes, resulting
from observed solar activity on Jul 07, and possible coronal-hole
induced solar wind disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated periods of spread-F observed at low and high
latitudes, particularly local night. There is a possibility of
periods of degraded HF conditions over the next two days mainly
at mid to high latitudes due to observed solar activity on Jul
07 and possible coronal-hole induced solar wind disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 38200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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