[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 11 09:51:44 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 09/2206UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. A few B-class and
two C-class flares were observed- the largest being a C9.9 from
region 783 at 1516UT. This flare was associated to a Type II
radio sweep with estimated shock speed of 869 km/s. No CME
activity could be confirmed as associated with this flare by
the time of this report. However, the full halo CME activity
associated with the M-flare observed on 09 July, is expected
to result in a shock in the solar wind stream late on 11 July
or during the first half of the UT day on 12 July. A shock was
observed in the the solar wind stream today at 0300UT due to
the CME activity observed on 07 July. The solar wind speed
rapidly increased from 350 to 500 km/s soon after this shock
was observed. The solar wind speed then gradually decreased to
430 km/s by the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field(Bz) remained moderately
to strongly southwards after 1000UT during the rest of the UT
day. The solar activity is expected to remain at low to moderate
levels during the next 3 days.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 10/0110UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 28 2445 5344
Learmonth 36 2455 5455
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 26 2345 5343
Hobart 26 2345 5344
Casey(Ant) 18 3433 3344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 45
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 19 3333 4434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 20 Active to minor storm with possibility of isolated
major storm periods.
12 Jul 25 Active to minor storm with possibility of isolated
major storm periods.
13 Jul 20 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity was enhanced today due to the
arrival of a shock from the CME activity observed on 07 July.
The effect of another CME may raise the geomagnetic activity
to minor storm levels with some possibility of isolated major
storm periods late on 11 July or early on 12 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
12 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
13 Jul Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: There is a possibility of disturbed intervals over the
next two days, mainly at mid to high latitudes, resulting from
observed solar activity on July 09.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 38 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
12 Jul 38 near predicted monthly values to depressed 5
to 10%.
13 Jul 42 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: There is a possibility of periods of degraded HF
conditions over the next two days mainly at mid to high
latitudes due to expected enhancements in the geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 45400 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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