[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 2 09:34:29 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JULY - 04 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jul: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today with C-class activity from
new regions 786 and 782. The largest event being a C5.3 class
flare from region 786. Solar wind speed began to steadily rise
with the arrival of the coronal hole high speed wind stream -
from 400km/s to 500km/s between 0900UT and 2100UT, after which
it climbed to be 600km/s at the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated
between +/-5nT between 0000UT-1400UT and then increased in magnitude
with prolonged southward periods of -10nT. The effects of this
current geoeffective coronal hole are expected to continue for
the next 2 days. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate
with the possibility of M-class events if the gradual growth
of regions 782 and 783 continues.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 2221 2333
Learmonth 10 2222 3333
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 6 1110 2333
Hobart 7 1121 2332
Casey(Ant) 8 2232 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8 1112 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Jul 20 active
03 Jul 16 active
04 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active conditions expected over the next
24 hours with current geoeffective coronal hole effects taking
effect. Isolated periods of Minor Geomagnetic Storming possible.
Conditions abating from 03Jul onwards.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions may show some degradations at high latitude
locations over the next 2 days due to expected elevated geomagnetic
activity. Otherwise generally good HF conditions are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Jul 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
03 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
04 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over
the next 24 hours for Northern Aus regions. Possible minor to
mild degradations in Southern Aus/NZ regions are expected over
the next 2 days due the anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity
from a recurrant coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jun
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 59500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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