[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 3 09:30:09 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today with C-class activity from
regions 785 and 786. The largest event being a C3.5 class flare
from region 785 at 0308UT. Region 785 was the source of 5 C-class
events and region 786 produced one. Solar wind speed began to
decline at the beginning of the UT day from 620km/s to be 540km/s
at the time of this report. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +/-5nT for
most of the UT day. The effects of this current geoeffective
coronal hole appear to be waning, but southward Bz periods are
still expected for the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected
to be low to moderate with the possibility of M-class events
if further growth in regions 783,785 and 786 continue. The majority
of regions on disk appear to magnetically simple at the moment.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
02/0840UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 11 3322 2332
Learmonth 10 3322 2322
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 8 3321 2221
Hobart 10 3322 3222
Casey(Ant) 17 4432 2342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 114 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16 2221 3444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
05 Jul 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Unsettled conditions expected over the next 24
hours arising from declining coronal hole effects. Isolated
Active periods still possible for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions observed over the last
24 hours with only some degradations at high latitude locations.
Similar conditions are expected over the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 40 near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over
the next 24 hours for Aus/NZ regions. Possible minor degradations
in Southern Aus/NZ regions are expected over the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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