[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 June 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 1 09:48:07 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today with no notable flare
activity. Solar wind speed gradually dropped from 400km/s to
be 380km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT
over the entire UT day. A coronal hole situated in the northern
hemisphere and extending down to the equator, has moved into
geoeffective position and its effects of elevating solar wind
parameters are expected in the next 24 hours. Solar activity is
expected to remain very low to low over the next 2 days.
There is a small chance of C-class flare activity from either
regions 783 and 782, both of which underwent some small growth
in sunspot size in the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 1222 1111
Learmonth 3 1211 1112
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 3 1111 1111
Hobart 3 0112 1111
Casey(Ant) 7 1332 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2112 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
02 Jul 22 active
03 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Unsettled to Active conditions expected over the next
2 days, with the anticipated arrival of a high speed coronal
hole wind stream. Isolated periods of Minor Geomagnetic Storming
possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions may show some degradations at high latitude
locations over the next 2 days due to expected elevated geomagnetic
activity. Otherwise generally good HF conditions are expected for
low to mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
03 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over
the next 24 hours for Northern Aus. regions. Possible minor to
mild degradations in Southern Aus/NZ regions are expected over
the next 2 days due the anticipated increase in geomagnetic
activity from a recurrant coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 66500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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