[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jan             31 Jan             01 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased from 400 to 600km/sec over 
the UT day, inassociation with a coronal hole wind stream. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 29 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   2234 3343
      Darwin              13   2224 3243
      Learmonth           15   2224 3342
      Culgoora            14   2234 3333
      Canberra            14   2234 3333
      Hobart              16   2334 2343
      Casey(Ant)          19   4--4 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2210 1132     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jan    22    active 
31 Jan    21    active 
01 Feb    22    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 26 January and 
is current for interval 29-30 January. Active conditions with 
possible minor storm periods expected next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
31 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
01 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jan    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jan    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
31 Jan    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
01 Feb    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: Lower than normal MUFs expected after local dawn next 
few days for southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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