[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jan             30 Jan             31 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: The sun has been mostly flare quiet of past 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed showed a moderate increase from about 12UT onwards 
yesterday. Generally increasing trend in solar wind speeds expected 
for next two days, due to a solar coronal hole now located in 
the western solar hemisphere. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   3121 1122
      Darwin               5   3111 1122
      Learmonth            5   3111 1222
      Culgoora             4   3111 1112
      Canberra             5   3121 0122
      Hobart               6   3221 0122
      Casey(Ant)          14   4-33 2232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0000 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jan    28    active 
30 Jan    19    active 
31 Jan    18    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 26 January and 
is current for interval 29-30 January. Disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
30 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
31 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jan    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Jan    15    Depressed 15 to 20% southern Aus/NZ region 
31 Jan    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 333 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    41600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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