[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jan             01 Feb             02 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was steady and moderately elevated 
at 600km/sec over the Ut day. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated around neutral for most 
of the UT day. No solar flares were observed in the past 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3333 3222
      Darwin               9   2223 32-2
      Learmonth           13   3333 3322
      Culgoora            10   2333 2221
      Canberra            12   2334 3211
      Hobart              14   2434 3211
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--3 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              63   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20   3234 3344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jan    12    Unsettled 
01 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Despite elevated wind speeds forecast active periods 
failed to eventuate. The field is expecte dto decline to quiet 
levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jan    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jan    30    near predicted monthly values 
01 Feb    30    near predicted monthly values 
02 Feb    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Lower than normal MUFs were not observed yesterday. 
Normal conditions now expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:   168000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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