[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 19 10:11:20 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 1133UT possible lower European
M4.6 1551UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 124/77
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 110/60 100/48
COMMENT: A strong shock of 100km/sec was observed in SOHO MTOF
proton monitor data at 0516UT. This would be too soon for the
X3.8 event and perhaps was from the recent X2 event. Its is now
unclear as to which shock ties to which solar event. Shock was
evident in temperature and speed channels, but not density channel
(presumably effected by proton event). Solar wind jumped from
520 to 620 km/sec. Speed then fluctuated between 500 and 900km/sec.
ACE solar wind speed remains affected by proton event. ACE interplanetary
magnetic field data showed Bz fluctuating southward by up to
20nt duriing the first half of the UT day, then settling to a
mildly southward orientation during the second half of the UT
day. Solar region 720, the recent flare active region, produced
the above M class events, and may produce further M class events.
The solar radio noise storm on the Culgoora radiospectrograph
is much weaker this morning and this may indicate that this region
is becoming less active. The solar proton event that followed
the X3.8 flare remains in progress. AC E EPAM precursor channels
are now declining possibly suggesting that no further shocks
are enroute to the Earth. However, statistical travel time of
shocks suggest that another shock is to be expected. ACE EPAM
data will be watched for any increasing count trends. Solar wind
speed at time of issue of this report remains fast at 900km/sec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Active to Severe Storm
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 59 6575 5444
Darwin 45 6465 4444
Learmonth 57 6565 5554
Culgoora 43 5565 4444
Canberra 56 6575 4444
Hobart 59 6575 5444
Casey(Ant) 74 6676 5554
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 106 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 80
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 63 5437 7753
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 45 Minor storm, isolated major storm periods local
night hours.
20 Jan 20 Unsettled to active
21 Jan 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Coronal mass ejections arrived much earlier than expected
with severe storm conditions observed on 18 Jan. Forecast activity
for 19 Jan now reduced as a consequence. Disturbed conditions
expected for 19 Jan (if another mass ejection arrives) then declining.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Fair-normal Fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 01 2005 0220UT and is
in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Fair-normal Fair Poor-fair
20 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions have been degraded due geomagnetic storm
activty in past 24 hours. Polar regions currently remain impacted
by increassed absorption from the ongoing proton event. Degraded
HF conditions expected for mid to high latitudes today then improving.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan -10 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
20 Jan 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 17 January
and is current for interval 18-20 January (SWFs) . Southern Aus/NZ
MUFs expected depressed after local dawn this morning. Northern
Aus stations currently near normal.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+08
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 506 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 96800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list