[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 20 10:38:55 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.7 0731UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
X1.4 0824UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M1.6 1540UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 120/72 110/60
COMMENT: Solar region 720 now at N13W56 produced an X1.3 flare
at 0822UT. This flare was associated with type II and IV radio
sweeps implying a coronal mass ejection was associated with this
flare. In addition the xray decline was slow, implying that the
currently declining proton event may pick up again in coming
hours. Solar wind speed fluctuated over the UT day, with an overall
decline from 1000km/sec to 700km/sec. The shock from the X1.3 flare
is expected to arrive second half of 21 Jan. The LASCO imagery from
this event shows a mostly north-west directed mass ejection, with
limited expansion around the Sun. Therefore a glancing blow is
expected from this mass ejection. IPS/ANARE Cosmic Ray Neutron
Monitor data shows a decrease of 13% at around 06 UT on 19 Jan.
Neutron Monitor count decreases can show that a coronal mass
ejection is enroute to the Earth, as the CME can obscure the
natural galactic cosmic radiation signal. However, this decrease
which is also visible on the Moscow Neutron Monitor is not supported
by the ACE EPAM precursor data channels, which have being showing
a steadily decreasing trend since the last coronal mass ejection
passed by the Earth. CME passage is associated with an increase in
ACE EPAM low energy ion count. So, the meaning of the observed
Neutron Monitor count decrease is unclear. An un-numbered region
(N00E56) produced a C5/1N flare at 2325UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 31 5554 4323
Darwin 25 4544 4323
Learmonth 36 5545 5423
Culgoora 26 4554 3322
Canberra 31 5554 4322
Hobart 35 5564 4312
Casey(Ant) 33 -654 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 52 (Unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 83 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 50
Planetary 80
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 72 6575 6645
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 20 active
21 Jan 35 Active to Minor storm
22 Jan 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: No strong geomagnetic activity observed passed 24 hours.
The field is expected to decline in activity for today. A glancing
blow from the X1/CME is expected second half 21 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 01 2005 0220UT and is
in progress. Proton flux (count) may increase following
X1 flare.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Poor(PCA)
21 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have been degraded due geomagnetic storm
activty in past 24 hours. HF conditions expected to improve today.
A return to degraded HF conditions is expected 21 Jan due to
anticipated arrival of coronal mass ejection.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Jan 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 17 January
and is current for interval 18-20 January (SWFs) . Southern Aus/NZ
MUFs very depressed yesterday. Northern Australia MUFs (Darwin
Townsville) and Vanimo PNG were depressed by up to 50% at times
during the interval 03-06UT. MUFs are expected to be better today
with the lack of overnight geomagnetic activity. However, some
sites may be depressed 15% after local dawn. Another degraded
period is expected late 21 to 22 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.4E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 280 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 80700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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