[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 18 10:24:35 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X3/2F 0952UT probable all Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 120/72
COMMENT: Solar wind conditions were disturbed in past 24 hours.
A minor shock was observed at around 0715 UT (presumably from
the recent M8 flare) and another indistinct shock was observed
in the solar wind using the SOHO MTOF solar wind proton monitor
data at around 1334UT. This was presumably from the recent X2
flare. Neither of these shocks were as strong as expected. The
north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (known
as Bz - southward orientation is correlated with strong disturbances),
was southward post shock but not sustained, and currently has
a mildly northward orientation. Solar region 720 (N13W27) produced
the long duration (almost 4 hours) X3.8 flare. Energetic protons
from this flare blinded the US ACE solar wind satellite. The
proton event was much stronger than the event associated with
the recent X2 flare and is above event count levels at 10, 50
and 100Mev energy levels. The 100 MeV event is declining and
just above event threshold count level. The flare was also associated
type II/IV radio sweeps (inferring that a CME has occured), observed
by Learmonth Solar Observatory. The LASCO (space based coronagraph)
confirmed a full halo event. This indicates that the mass ejection
is Earth directed and likely to be very geoeffective, due to
its strength and location just west of solar central meridian.
Event data suggests that the coronal mass ejection is expected
to arrive 14-21UT on 18 Jan. A very strong shock is expected.
The ACE instrument may remain blinded, and may miss this shock.
A strong noise storm is in progress this morning on the Culgoora
Radio Spectrograph, this indicates that region 720 is not quiet
and further activity is likely. The US GOES 12 satellite magnetometer
showed that the GOES satellite passed outside the Earths magnetopause
at times between 15 and 18 UT, due to the compression of the
Earths magnetic field from the X2 mass ejection event.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0716UT on
17 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Unsettled to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 38 4345 5643
Darwin 37 3345 5644
Learmonth 41 4355 5644
Culgoora 40 3355 5643
Canberra 35 3345 5633
Hobart 43 4445 6633
Casey(Ant) 58 4--6 6643
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra NA
Hobart 139 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 60
Planetary 80
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2222 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 20 Initially at unsettled to active levels, storm conditions
expected at end of UT day.
19 Jan 80 Severe Storm levels.
20 Jan 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: Two coronal mass ejections arrived overnight, but activity
whilst at major storm levels was not as strong as forecast. A
decline in activity is expected for most of today in association
with mildly northward interplanetary magnetic field conditions.
The coronal mass ejection from the X3.8 flare is expected to
arrive late on 18 Jan, and severe storm levels are expected on
19 Jan. IPS received a report of an Auroral sighting from Launceston,
Tasmania overnight.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor (PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 01 2005 0220UT and is in
progress. Intensified due to X3.8 flare.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor (PCA)
19 Jan Fair Fair-poor Poor
20 Jan Fair-normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions have been degraded due to frequent short
wave fadeouts, and geomagnetic storm activty in past 24 hours.
Polar regions currently severely impacted by increassed absorption
from another proton event. HF conditions expected to remain very
degraded at high latitudes for next two days. HF conditions may
briefly improve before a stronger degradation is expected late
18-19 Jan due to anticipated arrival of coronal mass ejection
associated with the recent X3.8 flare.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Jan -10 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
20 Jan 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions expected to be disrupted by shortwave
fadeouts today due to active solar region. Two Earth directed
coronal mass ejections have impacted the Earth, however ionospheric
response has not been as bad as predicted. Todays T index revised
to 40. However, another coronal mass ejection is expected to
arrive late 18 early 19 Jan and depressed conditions are expected
for 19 Jan and possibly 20 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 540 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 94000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list