[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 17 09:49:06 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2.7 15/2302UT probable all West Pacific
M2.4 2203UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar region 720 now located at N14W17 remains flare
active producing an M2/1N event this morning. As stated in yesterdays
report this region has produced two strong solar events. US ACE
satellite EPAM (low energy ion channels) data count values can
be used as a precursor to shock arrival, and these values have
shown a increase in count, suggesting the first shock may arrive
during the first half of today (originally expected late 16 Jan).
This coronal mass ejection (CME) is presumed from the recent
M8 flare. A second shock is also expected from the X2 flare/CME.
Further flares and fadeouts are expected today. This region is
now in a very geoeffective location, just west on solar central
meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 15 2233 4423
Darwin 13 2223 4423
Learmonth 20 2224 45-3
Culgoora 14 2233 441-
Canberra 15 2233 442-
Hobart 14 2333 3422
Casey(Ant) 25 4-44 4433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 22 3643 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 80 Storm levels
18 Jan 60 Storm levels
19 Jan 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 January and
is current for interval 16-17 January. The first coronal mass
ejection has yet to arrive, but remains expected. Severe storm
conditions are expected for 17 Jan and extending into 18 Jan
due to recent coronal mass ejection events. Auroral activity
at lower than normal latitudes is probable during late 17-18
Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 16 01 2005 0220UT and
is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor
18 Jan Fair-poor Poor Poor
19 Jan Fair Poor-fair Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions have been degraded due to frequent short
wave fadeouts. Polar regions currently impacted by increassed
absorption from proton event. Hf conditions expected to deteriorate
second half on 17 Jan due to expected arrival of coronal mass
ejections.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 30 to
40%
18 Jan -10 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
19 Jan -10 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 15 January
and is current for interval 15-17 January (SWFs) . HF conditions
expected to be disrupted by shortwave fadeouts today due to active
solar region. Two Earth directed coronal mass ejections are now
presumed enroute to the Earth. The first coronal mass ejection
was expected to arrive late 16 Jan, now expected first half 17
Jan. Depression T index forecast slipped out one day as a result.
Frequent fadeouts expected on daylight HF circuits. Recommended
course of action for today is to use as high a frequecny as possible
(due to elevated ALF conditions) and then be prepared to use
a lower frequency once mass ejection has impacted, probably after
local Aus/NZ dawn on Tuesday.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 629 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 188000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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