[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 January 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jan             05 Jan             06 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
03/1410UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3333 4333
      Darwin              12   3233 3323
      Learmonth           14   3233 4323
      Culgoora            15   3333 4322
      Canberra            16   3333 4332
      Hobart              21   3343 5332
      Casey(Ant)          24   5--4 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            67   (Active)
      Hobart              68   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             33   4454 3535     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jan    22    active 
05 Jan    16    active 
06 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jan    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jan    15    Depressed 15 to 20% southern Aus/NZ region 
05 Jan    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
06 Jan    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 728 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   476000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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