[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JANUARY - 07 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jan:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jan             06 Jan             07 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar region 715 produced a C8 event at 1113 UT. This 
event appears possibly associated with a predominately westward 
mass ejection. A weak shock may be observed in the solar wind 
in two days time. Solar wind speed remained elevated at around 
700km/sec over the UT day, with Bz the north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuating southward by 
up to 5nT. Elevated solar wind conditions due to coronal hole 
wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jan: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 04 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3333 4333
      Darwin              13   3232 4234
      Learmonth           18   3233 5332
      Culgoora            14   4332 3323
      Canberra            15   3332 4333
      Hobart              19   -432 4433
      Casey(Ant)          28   4-54 4-33
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            9   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            62   (Active)
      Hobart              83   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             22   4433 5432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jan    15    Unsettled to active 
06 Jan    18    Active 
07 Jan    17    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Active periods expected next few days due to a combination 
of coronal hole wind stream and weak coronal mass ejection induced 
activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected next few days at mid to high 
latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jan    38

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jan    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
06 Jan    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
07 Jan    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn the recovering. 
COMMENT: Mild depressions of 15% expetced briefly after local 
dawn next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jan
Speed: 630 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:   230000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"