[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 January 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jan             04 Jan             05 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34


ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
02/0845UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 02 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      21   4443 3432
      Darwin              20   3443 3432
      Learmonth           23   4343 353-
      Culgoora            20   3443 343-
      Canberra            24   3543 344-
      Hobart              23   3543 343-
      Casey(Ant)          28   5--4 344-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            42   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            65   (Active)
      Hobart              89   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15   1432 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jan    28    active 
04 Jan    14    Unsettled to Active 
05 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jan      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jan    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jan    15    Depressed 15 to 20% southern Aus/NZ region 
04 Jan    15    Depressed 15 to 20% southern Aus/NZ region 
05 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 31 December 
and is current for interval 2-3 January. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   123000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"