[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Feb             27 Feb             28 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2232 2332
      Darwin               7   1222 2323
      Learmonth            8   2222 2323
      Culgoora             8   1222 2332
      Canberra            11   1332 2332
      Hobart              12   1332 2432
      Casey(Ant)          17   3-44 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   0011 3122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Feb    17    active 
27 Feb    21    active 
28 Feb    22    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 23 February 
and is current for interval 25-26 February. Disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions expected during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Feb    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Feb    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
28 Feb    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 23 February 
and is current for interval 26-27 February. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 403 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:   110000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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