[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 05

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 25 10:55:17 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2122 3123
      Darwin               7   21-2 3123
      Learmonth            6   1122 3122
      Culgoora             4   1121 2113
      Canberra             4   1122 2113
      Hobart               7   1222 3122
      Casey(Ant)          14   3-4- 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1121 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb    13    Unsettled to Active 
26 Feb    19    active 
27 Feb    18    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 23 February 
and is current for interval 25-26 February. Moderately disturbed 
conditions expected during forecast period, isolated minor storm 
periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Feb    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb    40    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
26 Feb    40    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Feb    25    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 23 February 
and is current for interval 26-27 February. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    27700 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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