[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 05
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 25 10:55:17 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 2122 3123
Darwin 7 21-2 3123
Learmonth 6 1122 3122
Culgoora 4 1121 2113
Canberra 4 1122 2113
Hobart 7 1222 3122
Casey(Ant) 14 3-4- 3222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1121 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 13 Unsettled to Active
26 Feb 19 active
27 Feb 18 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 23 February
and is current for interval 25-26 February. Moderately disturbed
conditions expected during forecast period, isolated minor storm
periods may be experienced.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
27 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb 40 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb 25 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 23 February
and is current for interval 26-27 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 27700 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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