[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 24 09:57:48 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: A coronal hole is visible in the north-east solar quadrant,
using SOHO EIT imagery. Also, a long narrow coronal hole is visible
diagonaly spanning the solar disk. The Earth is expected to enter
a coronal hole wind stream 25-26 Feb. Solar flare activity over
the past 24 hours has been minor, and from two regions 736 and
735 which are about to rotate off disk. Some plage is visible
S10W31, but is currently spotless. Solar wind conditions currently
nominal, with a northward interplanetary magnetic ifeld orientation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 2221 2122
Darwin 5 2121 2121
Learmonth 5 2121 2122
Culgoora 4 1221 2022
Canberra 4 1121 2022
Hobart 4 1121 1122
Casey(Ant) 9 23-3 2122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Feb 20 active
26 Feb 20 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 23 February
and is current for interval 25-26 February. The geomagnetic activity
is expected to be quiet today. Coronal hole wind stream induced
activity expected 25-26 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
26 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected today. Mild to moderately
degraded HF conditions expected mid to high latitudes late 25-26
Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 55 near predicted monthly values
25 Feb 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
26 Feb 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 23 February
and is current for interval 26-27 February. MUFs expected to
be near to 15% above predicted monthly values for today. Lower
than normal MUFs are expected on 26 Feb, folowing anticipated
coronal hole wind stream induced activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 28500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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