[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 05
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 27 10:55:20 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 3223 3322
Darwin 10 3223 2322
Learmonth 12 3223 3332
Culgoora 9 2223 2322
Canberra 11 2223 3332
Hobart 13 2234 3322
Casey(Ant) 15 4--4 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1122 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 18 active
28 Feb 19 active
01 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
28 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
28 Feb 20 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
01 Mar 20 Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 23 February
and is current for interval 26-27 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 519 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 194000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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