[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 05

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Feb             22 Feb             23 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with 
only B-class events observed. The solar wind speed declined from 
a maximum of 520km/s at the beginning of the UT day to be 440km/s 
at the time of this report. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was northward (5nT) for the 
first half of the UT day, after which it was close to neutral 
for the remainder. Solar activity is expected to remain at low 
levels for the next 24 hours, with no increase in size or magnetic 
complexity of any regions currently on disk. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3322 2332
      Darwin              12   3331 2332
      Learmonth           10   3222 2332
      Culgoora             8   2221 1332
      Canberra             8   2221 2332
      Hobart               8   2221 2332
      Casey(Ant)          17   44-3 2332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             14   1234 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Feb     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to range from Quiet 
to Unsettled levels for the next 2 days. Slight chance of isolated 
Active periods possible. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over 
all latitudes for the next two days. Mild depressed periods observed 
for low-mid lattitudes over the UT day. Slight chance of minor 
degradations, more so at high latitudes, are possible. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Feb    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Feb    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
22 Feb    40    near predicted monthly values 
23 Feb    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Chance of mild depressions possible during local day 
for mid latitudes and Southern Aus/NZ regions. Otherwise normal 
HF conditions are expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 501 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   138000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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