[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 20 10:47:27 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.3    1101UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Feb             21 Feb             22 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours with 
region 732 producing a M3.3 class event at 1040UT. With region 
732 having just rotated of disk, no geoeffective effects are 
expected from this flare. The solar wind speed ranged between 
540km/s-460km/s and was at 500km/s at the time of this report. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT for the entire UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at low levels for the next 2 days, with 
a small decrease in size of region 735 and region 732 having 
just rotated off disk. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 19 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   1234 4222
      Darwin               9   1233 3223
      Learmonth           15   1234 4332
      Culgoora            13   1234 4222
      Canberra            14   0234 4322
      Hobart              11   1234 3222
      Casey(Ant)          16   2444 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             25   5443 4432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Feb    12    Unsettled 
21 Feb    12    Unsettled 
22 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to range from Quiet 
to Unsettled levels for the next 2 days. Slight chance of isolated 
Active periods possible. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over 
all latitudes for the next two days. Slight chance of minor degradations 
at high latitudes possible. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Feb    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 85% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Feb    50    near predicted monthly values 
21 Feb    55    near predicted monthly values 
22 Feb    60    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 
all Aus/NZ regions for the next two days, with slight chance 
of degraded conditions over Southern Aus/NZ regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 537 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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