[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 22 10:46:15 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
only two minor B-class events observed. The solar wind speed
continued to decline overall, from a peak of 460km/s at 0430UT
to be 380km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was southward at a
maximum of -5nT at the beginning of the UT day, and it gradually
went to neutral at 1000UT and remains so. Solar activity is expected
to remain at low levels for the next 24 hours. Region 736 showed
a small increase in its size, but has only the potential for
C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 2212 1111
Darwin 3 2102 1111
Learmonth 4 2112 2102
Culgoora 3 2111 1102
Canberra 4 2112 1111
Hobart 4 1212 1111
Casey(Ant) 7 2322 2211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 12 4330 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to range from Quiet
to Unsettled levels for the next 24 hours. Chance of isolated
Active periods beginning on the 23Feb due to the influence of
coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressed periods observed for low-mid lattitudes
over the UT day. These conditions are expected to improve, with
mostly normal HF conditions expected over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 30 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 30 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
24 Feb 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressed conditions observed over low-mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours due to geomagnetic activity. Conditions
expected to be mostly normal over the next 2 days for Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 461 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 70200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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