[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 14 10:41:30 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 116/68

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Feb             15 Feb             16 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Two C-class flares 
were observed  today,  the largest being  a C2.5 flare at 
1040UT from region 733(S09E00). This flare was associated 
to a TypeII sweep with a speed of 813 km/s as per Learmonth 
estimation. A relatively faint CME was also seen from the 
South-Eastern limb starting in LASCO imagery at 1130UT/13 
February,  but it is not  clear at this stage if this CME 
was  associated  to  this  C2.5 flare. Region 734(S04E16) 
produced the other C-flare of the day, a C1.4  at 1458UT. 
The coronal hole effect seems to have died out now as the 
solar wind speed gradually decreased from 460 km/s to 360 
km/s  during the UT day. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained  close to the 
normal value  almost  the  whole  day.  Solar activity is 
expected to remain at low levels during  the next 3 days. 
Region 733 holds potential for C-class activity. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2111 1111
      Darwin               4   2221 1112
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Culgoora             2   1110 0111
      Canberra             2   2110 01--
      Hobart               3   2111 1111
      Casey(Ant)           7   3--2 1221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2211 1120     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Feb     8    Quiet 
16 Feb     8    Quiet 
COMMENT:  The geomagnetic  activity is  expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days. However, 
there is some  possibility for the activity  to  rise upto 
unsettled levels at times on 14 February. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT:  HF conditions  are  expected to remain mostly 
normal on most locations  during  the  next three days. 
However, there is some possibility of  isolated periods 
of minor to mild degradations on high latitude locations 
on 14 February due to some possibility of slight rise in 
geomagnetic activity on this day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Feb    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Feb    52    near predicted monthly values 
15 Feb    55    near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%. 
16 Feb    55    near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three 
days. However, minor depressions may be observed at 
times in the southern Aus/NZ regions on 14 February. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 550 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    93600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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