[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 13 10:19:39 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only a few
B-class flares were observed. The coronal hole effect
significantly weakened during the UT day today. The solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 600 km/s to 470 km/s
during the UT day today. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to the
normal value almost the whole day. The solar wind stream
is expected to further weaken on 13 February as the coronal
hole effect subsides further. Solar activity is expected to
remain at very low levels during the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 2211 1221
Darwin 7 3221 1221
Learmonth - ---- ----
Culgoora 2 2110 0110
Canberra 4 2210 1221
Hobart 5 2211 1221
Casey(Ant) 7 3--2 1221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 43 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 2333 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 7 Quiet
14 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels on 13 February. The reccurrence
pattern and the presence of a coronal hole in the southern
part of the sun suggest that there is a possibility of
slight rise in the geomagnetic activity on 14 and 15 February.
Quiet to unsettled levels of activity may be possible on
14 and 15 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on low and mid-latitude locations during the
next three days. Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be observed on high latitudes
on 14 and 15 February due to some possibility of a slight
rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 54 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
14 Feb 50 near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 52 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three
days. However, minor depressions may be observed at
times in the southern Aus/NZ regions on 14 February.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 626 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 173000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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