[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 12 10:15:04 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Region 734(S04E43)
produced a C1.0 flare at 1000UT. The coronal hole effect
is continuing to decline. The solar wind speed gradually
decreased from 660 km/s to 590 km/s during the UT day today.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) fluctuated by 5nT (approx.) on both sides of
the normal value by 1600UT. The fluctuations in Bz weakened
to between +/-2nT after that and it seems to be close to
the normal value at the time of this report. The solar
wind stream is expected to continue to weaken on 12 February
as the coronal hole effect subsides further. Solar activity
is expected to remain at low to very low levels during the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 3224 2222
Darwin 8 3223 2122
Learmonth 11 2224 2---
Culgoora 9 2224 2122
Canberra 9 2224 2223
Hobart 9 2214 2223
Casey(Ant) 17 44-4 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 104 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 17 4433 4232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 9 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb 7 Quiet
14 Feb 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels during the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most locations during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 55 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
13 Feb 58 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
14 Feb 55 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 710 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 230000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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