[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 11 10:42:56 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Two B-class and
a low C-class flares were observed. The C1.7 flare was
produced by region 734(S04E56) at 0010UT. The coronal hole
effect is still keeping the solar wind stream strengthened,
although it has started to weaken now. The solar wind speed
remained between 700 and 750 km/s during the first half of
the UT day today and then showed a gradual decrease to 650 km/s
(approx.) during the rest of the day. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated by 5nT
(approx.) on both sides of the normal value almost the whole
day. The solar wind stream is expected to continue to weaken
during the next two days as the coronal hole effect subsides.
Solar activity is expected to remain at low to very low levels
during the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 16 3333 4333
Darwin 15 3333 4233
Learmonth 19 3333 5332
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 16 3333 4333
Hobart 16 3333 4333
Casey(Ant) 31 4554 4343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 99 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 25 3454 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 11 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
12 Feb 9 Quiet to unsettled
13 Feb 7 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually
decline during the next three days as the coronal hole
effect subsides. Mostly unsettled periods with some possibility
of isolated active periods are expected on 11 February. Mostly
quiet periods are expected on 12 and 13 February with some
possibility of unsettled periods on 12 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Fair-normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most locations during the next three days
with some possibility of minor to mild degradations
on high latitudes on 11 February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 50 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
12 Feb 55 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
13 Feb 58 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 15%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 713 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 262000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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