[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 15 10:36:04 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Region 734(S05E03)
produced a C1.9 flare(0408UT) associated with a Type IV
event. Region 733(S09W14) produced a C1.5 flare(1158UT)
associated with a Type II event with an estimated speed
of 904 km/s. The partial halo CME, that was observed in
association with the C2 flare on 13 February, doesn't seem
to have any significant earthward directed component. The
solar wind speed remained close to 360 km/s for the first
six hours of the UT day and then showed a rapid rise to 380
km/s. The solar wind speed remained between 380 and 400 km/s
during the rest of the day until the time of this report.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained close to the normal value for the first
6 hours of the UT day and then showed fluctuations between
+/- 5nT throughout the rest of the day. Region 735(S08E19)
has shown some growth during the last 24 hours. Solar
activity is expected to remain at low levels during the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 1221 1122
Darwin 4 2121 1112
Learmonth 5 2221 1122
Culgoora 2 0121 1012
Canberra 3 1121 1111
Hobart 4 1211 2122
Casey(Ant) 8 23-- 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1111 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 7 Quiet
16 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days. However,
there is some possibility for the activity to rise upto
unsettled levels at times on 16 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal on most locations during the next three days.
However, there is some possibility of isolated periods
of minor degradations on high latitude locations on
16 February due to some possibility of slight rise in
geomagnetic activity on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 65 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%.
16 Feb 58 near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 65 near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 20%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 39300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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