[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 05

Sun Feb 6 10:55:22 EST 2005

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb:  95/41

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Feb             07 Feb             08 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             115/66             125/78
COMMENT: A coronal hole is now at solar central meridian and 
the Earth is expected to enter this wind stream on 07 Feb. Solar 
activity may increase in coming days due to return of previously 
active region to north-east limb. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2111 2012
      Darwin               2   1110 2011
      Learmonth            3   2111 2012
      Culgoora             1   1010 2002
      Canberra             2   1110 2002
      Hobart               3   2111 1111
      Casey(Ant)           7   3--2 2111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0001 2111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Feb    12    Unsettled 
07 Feb    26    active 
08 Feb    17    active 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Feb      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
08 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Feb    37

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Feb    15    Depressed 15 to 20% southern Aus/NZ region 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 478 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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