[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Feb             08 Feb             09 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: The Earth is expected to enter a coronal hole wind stream 
on 07 Feb. Old solar region 720 (now numbered 732) has rotated 
over the north-east limb as a region consisting of about only 
4 spots (as reported by Learmonth solar observatory). The region 
shows some activity in the northern portion of the region. SOHO 
magnetogram shows some polarity mixing in this region. Learmonth 
Observatory rates this region's flare potential at this stage 
as only fair. Also, some minor activity at S08 on the east limb 
this morning, in Culgoora H-alpha imagery. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2231 1222
      Darwin               6   1231 1222
      Learmonth            7   1231 0232
      Culgoora             6   2231 0123
      Canberra             8   1241 1222
      Hobart               5   2221 1223
      Casey(Ant)          13   24-3 2232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              4   1110 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Feb    20    active 
08 Feb    17    active 
09 Feb    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Active periods expected next two days due to coronal 
hole wind stream induced geomagnetic activity. Chance minor storm 
periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mid to high latitude HF communications mildly degraded 
next two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Feb    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Feb    40    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Feb    20    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Feb    25    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for local day today. A coronal 
hole wind stream is expected to induce some geomagnetic activity 
over the next two days. Lower than normal MUFs may be experienced 
after local dawn 08-09 Feb. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    32400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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