[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 05
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 5 10:55:19 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 100/48 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity may increase in coming days due to return
of previously active region to north-east limb.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 720 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 5 Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 2112 2211
Darwin 6 2112 3211
Learmonth 7 1112 3311
Culgoora 4 1112 2211
Canberra 5 2112 2211
Hobart 7 1223 2211
Casey(Ant) 10 3--3 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8 1431 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Feb 3 Quiet
06 Feb 4 Quiet
07 Feb 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced
during the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes
only during local night hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Feb 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 518 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 245000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list