[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 05

Sat Feb 5 10:55:19 EST 2005

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb:  82/23

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Feb             06 Feb             07 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34             100/48             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity may increase in coming days due to return 
of previously active region to north-east limb. 

Previously X-flare(s) producing region 720 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 5 Feb. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2112 2211
      Darwin               6   2112 3211
      Learmonth            7   1112 3311
      Culgoora             4   1112 2211
      Canberra             5   2112 2211
      Hobart               7   1223 2211
      Casey(Ant)          10   3--3 2222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              42   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1431 1211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Feb     3    Quiet 
06 Feb     4    Quiet 
07 Feb    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Feb    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Depressed by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 518 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   245000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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