[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 4 09:48:05 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 100/48 115/66
COMMENT: Solar wind was moderately elevated at 500km/sec over past
24 hours. The ACE EPAM flux levels failed to maintain the recent
increasing flux trend. There is a small chance for a very weak shock
in the solar wind first half of the UT day 04 Feb, from the filament
which vanished from the solar disk 01 Feb. A mound prominence
can be seen in Culgoora H-alpha imagery at approximately 3 degrees
south. This is probably the return of solar region 718, which
produced only two low level M class events on its previous transit.
Much more active old region 720 is expected to return to the north
east limb (13 degrees north) on around 05 Feb. Solar activity
may show some increase in coming days. In general though the
second disk transit of previously active solar regions has been
much quieter than the first, for this solar cycle. A coronal
hole is visible in the north-east solar quadrant, and recurrence
suggests that the Earth is expected to enter the wind stream
from this hole on around 07Feb. Another solar filament (10 degrees
long) vanished from the solar disk at N13W13 05-06UT on 03 Feb.
No radio sweep was observed on the Culgoora Spectrograph
at this time, iplying that the material did not escape the Sun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 2333 1111
Darwin 6 2232 1110
Learmonth 7 2232 1210
Culgoora 5 1232 1111
Canberra 11 1443 1111
Hobart 11 2343 2111
Casey(Ant) 12 ---4 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1132 2231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
05 Feb 12 Unsettled
06 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Moderate elevated solar wind speeds expected to produce
isolated active periods next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
05 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
06 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mid to high latitude HF communications mildly degraded.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Feb 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Feb 25 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values
06 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Southern regional MUFs depressed 15% after local dawn
southern Aus/NZ region. Southern region MUFs may again be 15%
depressed today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 514 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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