[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 3 10:17:00 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind moderately elevated at 500km/sec with slow
declining trend. RWC Belgium reported activity to the south of
solar region 728 on 01 Feb at around 10-11UT using the SOHO EIT
imagery. A review of both Culgoora and Learmonth solar observatory
H-alpha imagery showed that an L shaped filament about 8 to 10
degrees long (S18W18 to S15W26) vanished from the solar disk
between 0808UT and 0828UT, which we had missed. Learmonth had
reported a type 2 radio sweep of around 660km/sec at 1032UT.
A CME was reported (as a backside event) around 1106UT. The reported
radio sweep may be more associated with the presumed backside
mass ejection at around 11UT, as the filament vanished much earlier
starting around 08 UT. This may imply that the filament mass
did not escape the Sun, or the coronal mass ejection was possibly
too faint to be seen. However, it is not certain. Time of filament
eruption suggests that a very weak partial shock may arrive first
half of UT day on 04 Feb. ACE EPAM low energy ion channels showed
a mild increasing trend (still very low count) but it is unclear
whether this is associated with a weak recurrent coronal hole pattern
or is a CME precursor. Possibly coronal hole wind stream. The Sun was
flare quiet over the past 24 hours. Solar activty is expected to
be quiet until around 05 Feb, when an previously active region may
return to the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 2222 2321
Darwin 7 1222 2320
Learmonth 7 1122 2321
Culgoora 5 1221 2220
Canberra 7 2222 2221
Hobart 5 1222 1221
Casey(Ant) 19 3-43 3342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3012 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Feb 5 Quiet
04 Feb 15 Unsettled to Active
05 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions expected. A weak recurrent pattern
and a possible erupting solar filament may cause active periods
04 Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal
04 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Normal-Fair
05 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Feb 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Feb 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values
05 Feb 33 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional MUFs depressed 15% after local dawn southern
Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 554 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 41600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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