[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Feb             03 Feb             04 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 600 to 500km/sec. A coronal 
mass ejection and Type II radio sweep was observed at around 
1036UT. Due to lack of xray emission and on disk solar activity 
this event is presumed to be a back-side event. Old solar region 
720 which was flare active on its past rotation is possibly due 
back to the solar disk (north 11 degrees) around 05 Feb. Also, 
on disk region 729 whilst still flare quiet and magnetically 
simple, may be showing some development. Also, Previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 718 is due for return to the south-east limb 
around 3 Feb. However, this region showed significant decay on its 
last transit.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2122 2212
      Darwin               5   2122 2212
      Learmonth            4   2112 2201
      Culgoora             5   2122 1212
      Canberra             5   2122 2202
      Hobart               4   2122 1201
      Casey(Ant)          14   3--4 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19   3234 5431     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Feb    12    Unsettled 
04 Feb    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled levels expected next few days. weak 
recurrent pattern 03-04 Feb. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Feb    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Feb    30    near predicted monthly values 
03 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 15% depressed MUFs observed southern Aus/NZ region local 
day only yesterday. MUFs are aexpected to be mostly near monthly 
predicted values for today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 634 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   124000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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