[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 1 10:04:39 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was again moderately elevated at around
600km/sec over the UT day. Wind speed is expected to start to
decline today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated around neutral for most of the UT day.
No solar flare were observed in the past 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 14 2233 4331
Darwin 11 2232 333-
Learmonth 14 2233 4332
Culgoora 12 2233 3331
Canberra 16 2234 4331
Hobart 20 2344 4430
Casey(Ant) 17 3--3 4332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 16 3434 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 12 Unsettled
02 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Only 1 isolated active period observed. General decline
in geomagnetic field expected for coming days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Fair-Normal Normal-Fair
02 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 30 near predicted monthly values
02 Feb 30 near predicted monthly values
03 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are aexpected to be mostly near monthly predicted
values. Some brief depressions may be experienced in southern
Aus/NZ region after local dawn this morning.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 593 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 151000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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